Utilizando datos codificados geográficamente sobre todos los países del África subsahariana en conflicto entre 1989–2008, dentro de un diseño de frontera de emparejamiento y complementado con un análisis de variables instrumentales, encontramos un fuerte apoyo sustantivo y estadístico para nuestras expectativas sobre la intensidad de los conflictos militares, aunque encontramos menos apoyo para nuestras expectativas sobre las víctimas civiles. Presentamos un argumento teórico según el cual la ayuda exterior concentrada, asignada durante los conflictos armados en curso, aumenta el número de víctimas militares, pero disminuye el de víctimas civiles. Investigamos si la ayuda exterior disminuye, o incluso aumenta, la violencia durante los conflictos armados en curso. ¿Reduce la ayuda exterior la violencia durante las guerras en curso? En la comunidad política ha crecido el optimismo sobre la posibilidad de que la ayuda mejore las zonas frágiles y afectadas por conflictos. The paper offers both academic and policy insights, including that foreign aid allocated during ongoing wars may be more problematic than it is helpful. We also probe the plausibility of the causal mechanism using interview evidence drawn from ex-commanders of the Lord’s Resistance Army and generals of the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces in northern Uganda. The paper provides novel insights about the effects of concentrated aid on military versus civilian conflict intensity, characterizes the effects at a sub-national level, and expands the spatial-temporal period of the analysis. Using geographically coded data on all sub-Saharan African countries in conflict between 19, within a matching frontier design and supplemented by instrumental variable analysis, we find strong substantive and statistical support for our expectations about military conflict intensity though less support for the expectations about civilian fatalities. We advance a theoretical argument that concentrated foreign assistance allocated during ongoing armed conflicts increases military fatalities but decreases civilian fatalities. We investigate whether foreign aid decreases, or even increases, violence during ongoing armed conflict. Does foreign aid reduce violence during ongoing wars? In the policy community, there has been growing optimism about the prospect for aid to improve conflict-affected and fragile areas.
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